Lightning’s Offseason Priority Should Be Signing Stamkos

In addition to trying to help the Lightning make a deep run in the playoffs, Stamkos is out to show the Lightning and possibly the rest of the NHL that the impending unrestricted free agent should be one of the more sought-after players in the offseason. His play has further demonstrated that re-signing him should be the Lightning’s top priority.

Stanley Cup Window Has Not Closed

The Lightning’s captain has 77 points on the season (39-38—77) and became the sixth player in NHL history, age 34 or older, with three consecutive multi-goal efforts, joining elite players like Alex Ovechkin, Patrice Bergeron, Marian Hossa, Norm Ullman, and Doug Mohns. Among all active skaters age 34 or older, Stamkos is the third to record a six-game goal streak this season. While he, like the Lighting, has had ups and downs this season, there is no evidence that his on-ice performance will slow down anytime soon.

In September, Stamkos made a rare public statement expressing his disappointment that the team hadn’t engaged in meaningful contract talks ahead of training camp for the 2023-24 season. Entering the final season of an eight-year, $68 million contract, he had expressed a desire to extend his current deal and finish his career with the Lightning.

General manager Julien Brisbois responded, “It’s not just about Steven playing out his career in Tampa. It’s about Steven staying in Tampa and the Lightning remaining a legitimate Stanley Cup contender year in and year out for the remainder of his tenure as a player on the club.”

Many thought his statement hinted at seeing how Stamkos performed this season to gauge the status of the 16-year veteran and what he could do to keep the team in the Stanley Cup picture, along with being able to assess what he could be offered in salary discussions.

With his play, however, he has proven that he is still an integral part of the franchise and a vital member of the core group of Lightning standouts. He is also capable of helping the team get back to a Stanley Cup final.

Lightning’s Salary Cap Issues

One reason Brisebois is waiting is that the Lightning will continue to have issues staying under the cap in 2024-25. Even though the salary cap for next season is expected to go up to $87.7 million, the organization will still have some hard decisions to make in assembling their roster. According to Cap Friendly, the Lightning are projected to have around $10 million in cap space to sign or re-sign Stamokos and many others.

The team’s other free agents include Tyler Motte, Austin Watson, Calvin de Haan, Haydn Fleury, Anthony Duclair, and Matt Dumba. With Brandon Hagel’s $5 million raise kicking in next season, building the lineup will be challenging, even if Stamkos is willing to accept the same contract of $8.5 million per season. However, this would make it nearly impossible to put together a full roster, even with players signed at the NHL minimum or promoted from their American Hockey League squad in Syracuse.

Fortunately, the Lightning have a built-in advantage for signing Stamkos or any other free agent. With no state income tax, any player who plays in Tampa Bay will take home more of their salary than they would if they played in almost any other state and Canada, and they will need that edge in the coming years if they still want to field a Stanley Cup-contending team.

Lightning Who Stay and Who Goes

Assuming that Stamkos will stay and finish his career in a Lightning sweater, management could be forced to trade one or more of their key players to free up space. Those who do not have a no-trade clause include Anthony Cirelli ($6.25 million), Erik Cernak ($5.2 million), Brandon Hagel ($6.5 million), and Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5 million). One of these players may need to be traded to sign Stamkos, among others, and stay under the salary cap.

The newest wrinkle in this has been the play of Anthony Duclair, whom the Lightning acquired at the trade deadline. He has made a major contribution, scoring six goals and five assists in his first 13 games since arriving from the San Jose Sharks. The 28-year-old’s play is similar to last season when he helped the Florida Panthers reach the Stanley Cup final for the first time.

There are signs that the Lightning may be interested in re-signing him in the offseason. He currently carries a cap hit of $3 million, something else the Lightning will have to consider when signing Stamkos or anyone else. However, given his play, the Lightning should have the confidence to re-sign their captain, and it should be one of the team’s priorities heading into the summer.