Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Texas Children's Houston Open

The Florida Swing on the PGA Tour schedule has come to a close, and now it's time for a quick trip to Texas before the Masters next month. First up is the Texas Children's Open at Memorial Park Golf Course, a tough, 7,400-yard test that favors longer hitters and players who can avoid big numbers. Memorial Park features a unique setup with five par 3s and three par 5s, and the par 4s are brutally tough. It will be crucial this week to score on the par 5s and tread water on the par 4s.

Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the +300 (yes, +300) betting favorite. It might be a fool's errand trying to beat the scorching hot World No. 1 in the outright market, but we're going to try our best with three bets to win the Houston Open. 

Alex Noren (+4000 ESPN BET)

There's already been some interest in Noren in the betting market, so we're grabbing him at 40/1 before his odds drop even more.

Noren is coming off a T19 at the Players Championship and a T9 at the Cognizant Classic. He hasn't missed a cut in his last 11 starts, and he has only one finish outside the top 50 over that span. His consistent form is exactly what we're looking for at Memorial Park.

Noren ranks second on the PGA Tour behind Scheffler in bogey avoidance. He also ranks 24th in par 5 scoring average, 25th in par 3 scoring average, ninth in driving accuracy and fourth in greens in regulation percentage. The Swede is striking the ball with a ton of confidence right now, and he should feel comfortable at Memorial Park after his T4 finish here last season. 

Jake Knapp (+6000 FanDuel)

We cashed Jake Knapp at 40/1 to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta earlier this season, and we're going right back to him at the Houston Open.

Knapp has incredible speed and distance with his driver. He had to dial it back off the tee at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass because of the heavy water danger lining the fairways, but he should be able to let it rip at Memorial Park. On such a long golf course, Knapp will have a huge advantage over the rest of the field if he can keep his driver in play.

Knapp ranks 21st on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach, and he's gained strokes on the greens in six straight starts. This should be a great course fit for the 29-year-old, and we've already seen he knows how to win at this level. 

Kurt Kitayama (+6600 BetMGM)

Kitayama is our favorite outright bet for the Houston Open, especially at his 66/1 price. The 31-year-old is a perfect fit for this golf course.

Kitayama ranks third on the PGA Tour in par 3 scoring average, 15th in bogey avoidance, 39th in driving distance and 40th in strokes gained on approach. He tends to struggle with his short game, but the American has gained strokes with his putter in three of his last four starts. Kitayama has enjoyed a ton of success on firm, fast golf courses that don't give up many birdies. His lone PGA Tour win came at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, which is a similar golf course to Memorial Park in terms of its length, Bermuda grass greens and tough scoring conditions. 

All aboard the Kitayama train this week.